I. A Brief Summary of Recent Albertan Political History, and Western Alienation.
Justin Trudeau’s victory in 2015, in retrospect, is astonishing. The Liberal Party went from third place, their worst ever result, to a majority government, with a seat in every single Canadian province and territory. Trudeau’s government was a national government, representative of Canadians everywhere.
Perhaps the most exceptional aspect of Trudeau’s victory in 2015 was that the Liberals broke the right-of-centre monopoly on Calgary’s seats. Ever since Pat Mahoney won the riding of Calgary South in 1968, the first federal election where Pierre Trudeau led the Liberal Party, the Liberals have been shut out of the city, until 2015. The Progressive Conservatives, the Reform Party, the Canadian Alliance, and the Conservative Party, whichever party that held the mantle of Canadian conservatism won every seat in Calgary between 1968-2015. The monopoly finally broke after nearly half a century when, riding on Trudeau’s nation-wide coattails, Kent Hehr won Calgary Centre and Darshan Kang won Calgary Skyview.
Both Hehr and Kang were accused of sexual harassment in their stint in parliament. Kang did not run for reelection, and Conservative Jag Sahota won the seat easily in 2019. Hehr instead ran for reelection, but he too lost in a landslide. Just like how Pat Mahoney was elected to the House of Commons in a wave of “Trudeaumania” only to lose his seat in the next election while the Liberals nationwide were reduced to a minority, the Liberals were once again reduced to nothing in Calgary – or Alberta as a whole, for that matter.
The comparison between ‘68’s and ‘15’s Liberals isn’t perfect, of course. The Liberals would not have to wait another 47 years to win a seat in Calgary; George Chahal won in Calgary Skyview in 2021’s snap election by a slightly larger margin than Kang did in 2015. Even if all the people who voted for Harry Dhillon, the candidate of the decidedly right-wing People’s Party of Canada voted for former Tory MP Jag Sahota, the Liberals still would have won in Calgary Skyview.
Much like our weather amidst the chinook, Calgary is a changing city, whose brand of moderate, urban fiscal conservatism is becoming increasingly misaligned with rural cultural conservatism. The oil industry will likely keep the Conservatives stronger in the city than in any other urban centre in the country, but as the energy industry shifts away from fossil fuels, this too will weaken.
However, just because the right-of-centre monopoly on Calgary has ended, does not render the 2019 reaction against the Liberal Party in Calgary, in Alberta, and in Western Canada more broadly, any less real. Though 2019’s federal election resulted in a victory for the Liberal Party, it reduced the Liberals’ mandate to a minority, and, more critically, revealed cracks within Confederation. In 2019, the Liberals lost every seat they held in Alberta and Saskatchewan, along with losing six seats in British Columbia and three in Manitoba. Had they held on to every seat in western Canada they won in 2015, they would have won 171 seats nationwide; just barely a majority. Though Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system is distortionary compared to the popular vote, the popular vote in the Western provinces was not much kinder. In Alberta, the Liberals went from nearly 25% of the popular vote to 13.8%. In Saskatchewan, they went from 23.9% to 11.9%. Even in friendlier British Columbia and Manitoba, the Liberals won less than 30% of the popular vote, a figure they easily cleared east of Manitoba. Clearly, the 2019 election showed a trend of unambiguous dissatisfaction with the Liberal government in Western Canada.
Trudeau and the Liberal Party, at least rhetorically, recognized this. Trudeau’s post-election victory speech in Montreal made it clear he has recognized that people in the west are unhappy with his government, and he promised to do better. It seemed like the 43rd Canadian Parliament, a parliament sharply polarized on geographic terms, was going to heavily feature the theme of western Canadian alienation. That was, until the pandemic.
II. An Overview of Organized Outcroppings of Western Alienation
In the months following the 2019 election, political organization across Alberta and western Canada began. The Alberta Institute, a “Libertarian-minded” interest group founded in 2018 and headed by Josh Andrus, a former Wildrose Party and UCP staffer, serves as an umbrella for two other formal interest groups. The Alberta Institute is the broadest in scope of these organizations, focusing on policies they deem relevant to Albertans like ending the ArriveCAN app, but they do not exclusively within the lens of “Albertans vs. Ottawa” like the following orgs.
The first, Project Confederation, was created just days before election day in 2019. Headed directly by Andrus, Project Confederation claims to focus on alienation in western Canada as a whole, pressuring for the implementation of “long-lasting structural changes” to make confederation more equitable for the western Canadian provinces, calling for “Abolishing equalization, A fair House of Commons, An equal Senate, Unrestricted free trade (including pipelines), Complete provincial control over resources” though its emails do focus on Alberta. Out of the Alberta Institute-umbrella organizations, Project Confederation is, as of writing, the most docile in messaging and activities.
The second group under the Alberta Institute umbrella is the Free Alberta Strategy, which is headed by former Airdrie MLA Rob Anderson. The Free Alberta Strategy, which has perhaps the most narrow set of goals of the Alberta Institute orgs, revolves around their 48-page manifesto of the same name, co-written by Anderson, lawyer Derek From, and University of Calgary political science professor Barry Cooper. Published on September 28th, 2021, the document is filled with what they term as “a series of initiatives our Provincial Government can implement today, without needing any permission from Ottawa, to make Alberta a sovereign jurisdiction within Canada.”
The vehicle of the Free Alberta Strategy’s goals is the Alberta Strategy is the Alberta Sovereignty Act, which is supposed to empower the Alberta legislature to not enforce federal legislation or court rulings they view as an infringement of Alberta’s provincial jurisdiction. From there, the document calls for the creation of an Albertan provincial police force, the unilateral termination of equalization payments, an Albertan pension plan, and other policy measures that would largely decouple Alberta from the rest of the country while staying inside Canada.
The document ends with arguing that if Ottawa does not relent to these demands, then the Albertan government should begin preparing to exit Canada, calling for a referendum on the succession of Alberta from Canada and the establishment of a Republic of Western Canada. They do stress that this is a final resort, but they likewise acknowledge it as a legitimate option.
Though the organizing of Project Confederation has been muted since its establishment in October 2019, likely thanks to the pandemic, the Free Alberta Strategy has been more proactive. The initiative took the plunge into Albertan electoral politics when Rob Anderson hosted a panel of United Conservative Party (UCP) leadership candidates discussing their positions on the Free Alberta Strategy’s policy aims and towards the Alberta Sovereignty Act on June 23rd. Soon afterwards, Rob Anderson announced he was taking a leave of absence as the head of the Free Alberta Strategy in order to chair Danielle Smith’s leadership campaign, but not before gloating about how journalists “aren’t laughing now.”
Though these interest groups are the most outspoken in their support for Albertan and western Canadian autonomism, they are not the only groups that have taken action. Jason Kenney and the UCP won the 2019 provincial election on a platform promising to use a referendum as “leverage for federal action to complete a coastal pipeline and to demand reforms to the current unfair formula.” As such, they held a plebiscite on the issue coinciding with Oct. 18th, 2021’s municipal elections, where a majority of around 62% voted against equalization. However, less than 15% of Albertans voted in the plebiscite, rendering it lacking democratic legitimacy. The vote was held as political theatre to galvanize sovereignty-minded Albertans to electorally side with Jason Kenney’s UCP. Even if the referendum had this backing however, provinces are unable to unilaterally modify the Canadian constitution, though a greater turnout may have given the Albertan government a better mandate to start negotiations. Nothing has come out of the plebiscite.
Federally, there has been a variety of responses. As aforementioned, Justin Trudeau’s victory speech after the 2019 election emphasized the need to reach out to the western provinces and listen to their concerns, but there has been no policy changes by the federal government since then, let alone statements. Much like Alberta’s provincial NDP, the federal Liberals and NDP have been silent on western issues. It is critical to understand that since 1993 when the Reform Party picked up votes from the federal NDP in western Canada, the Canadian and Albertan right wield a monopoly on western alienation. The NDP used to serve as a protest vote for western Canadians, but this is no longer the case.
Conservative MPs Michelle Rempel-Garner, Blake Richards, Glen Motz, and Arnold Viersen issued the Buffalo Declaration, where they outlined the argument that Alberta’s lesser position in Canada is threatening Confederation. Unlike the Free Alberta Strategy, the propositions laid forth in the Buffalo Declaration would be undertaken by the federal government, rather than by Alberta or other provincial governments. They do not propose anything that would subvert the rule of law in Canada, nor do they propose separation as a last resort, though they state that “Immediate action must be taken because we are hearing from many people in our province that they will be equal or they will seek independence.” Whereas the Free Alberta Strategy floats independence as a last resort, the Buffalo Declaration is more honest in its positioning as an attempt to save Confederation.
Additionally, western alienation has gained a prominent voice in Canadian media through the Western Standard. The publication was originally founded by far-right pundit Ezra Levant, but folded in 2007, only to be relaunched by former Wildrose-turned Freedom Conservative Party MLA Derek Fildebrant. The Western Standard presents itself as an independent voice for the “new west” which is “fighting for a strong and free Western Canada.” Their columnists include Project Confederation director Josh Andrus.
In lieu of the federal Conservatives holding a debate focusing on Quebec and Quebec issues, the Western Standard hosted a debate focused on western Canadian issues, though frontrunner Pierre Poilievre skipped the debate (despite being the only candidate born in western Canada) along with Leslyn Lewis missing it as well, and Patrick Brown being disqualified from the leadership race right before. As a result, the debate format changed into a panel format, where Fildebrandt interviewed Jean Charest, Scott Aitchison, and Roman Baber on a variety of issues. Charest argued for Alberta to be given more autonomy within Confederation, akin to the powers given to Quebec, whereas Aitchison and Baber made an argument that there should be no special allowances for provinces. Instead, provinces should be treated equally and fairly. Baber in particular emphasized that Alberta should be greater represented within the House of Commons. With mere weeks until the Conservative leader is announced, it seems extremely likely Poilievre will win. He is yet to publicly comment on western issues during this campaign.
The Freedom Conservative Party, which Fildebrandt founded and led, was an autonomist party, but after it failed to win any seats in the 2019 provincial election, it united with Wexit Alberta to form the Wildrose Independence Party. The Wildrose Independence Party, or WIP, is aesthetically and ideologically similar to the Wildrose Party that preceded the UCP, but also advocates for independence of Alberta from the rest of Canada. Its platform is in many ways eerily similar to the Free Alberta Strategy. Currently, the leadership of the party is disputed, and it is yet to face the test of a general election. There is also The Independence Party, though if the by-election results in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche is anything to go on, the WIP is more likely to be the political vehicle-of choice for Albertan separatists.
Outside of Alberta, western separatists and regionalists are less organized and vocal. In neighbouring British Columbia, Wexit BC ran two candidates in Boundary-Similkameen and Peace River South during the 2020 provincial election. The two candidates captured around 2.5 percent of the vote in those ridings, but after candidate nominations closed, the party retracted their endorsement of both candidates. The party’s website no longer works and the party seems to have been deregistered by Elections BC. There is also the British Columbia Independence Party, which did not run any candidates in 2020.
Saskatchewan, which has become something of a political twin to Alberta in recent years, does not have any presently registered political parties advocating for independence. However, the Buffalo Party, which advocates for autonomy from Ottawa, finished in third place in the popular vote in the 2020 provincial election, including winning almost 25 percent of the vote in the rural district of Estevan.
Manitoba has had multiple right-wing populist parties form over the past few years, but without any success thus far. The Manitoba First Party, originally the Manitoba Party, gained an MLA in the form of Steven Fletcher after a floor crossing, but he left provincial politics to run for the People’s Party of Canada. The party’s platform did not mention anything about separation or autonomy, did poorly in the 2019 provincial election and folded this year. Its successor, the Keystone Party, does mention on its website the need to “protect Manitoba’s sovereignty” and to “actively resist federal intrusions into that sovereignty.” The Keystone Party remains electorally untested.
Federally, the Maverick Party ran candidates in the 2021 federal election across rural Alberta, Saskatchewan, British Columbia, and Manitoba. The party nominally advocates for separation, though former leader Jay Hill positioned the party as hoping to act as a western advocacy party, gaining parliamentary concessions for western Canadians in exchange for supporting legislation, much like the Bloc Quebecois. The party’s website frequently mentions autonomy, but little about separation. It won no seats in 2021, and its best performing candidates won only single-digit percentages of the vote in those ridings.
III. Danielle Smith, and the Near-Future of Western Canada
Though most of these movements and initiatives were formed in response to 2019’s federal election, there has yet to be a major victory for western autonomists or separatists. The closest thing to it, the Albertan equalization plebiscite, was a farce. As I wrote about last year, the province did the bare minimum to promote it, resulting in pathetic turnout and thus depriving it of a mandate. Even if you disagree with qualifying the sensitivity of the referendum on its turnout, the provincial government proceeded to use their “mandate” to do nothing. There has been zero dialogue with the federal government on equalization since, and the issue has fallen to the wayside completely. For this reason, one may ask: why spend so much time on crackpots?
This attitude of complacency is what frightens me. Though the foundation of aimless parties, vitriolic institutions and initiatives, and declarations that went nowhere after 2019 may prove to some that western separatism will never be viable, the fact they lost momentum is attributable chiefly to the pandemic. The pandemic disrupted normal life and therefore normal politics as we knew it, and perhaps our political environment will never return to that normal. But now that the pandemic, or at least people’s patience with complying with pandemic measures, is dwindling, the rhetoric of western alienation has reappeared within mainstream Canadian discourse, intertwined with anti-lockdown politics.
The Western Standard also hosted a “frontrunners” UCP debate between Danielle Smith, Brian Jean, and Travis Toews. Though this is definitely an unscientific method, if the feeling of crowd at Rooftop YYC on August 9th is any indication, Danielle Smith is clearly favoured to become the next premier of Alberta. Though Travis Toews and Brian Jean got some decent applause from the audience, from the beginning it was evident that Danielle Smith owned that crowd. When she was asked if she regretted crossing the floor to the Progressive Conservatives in 2014, she said it was a mistake and used the opportunity to argue that politicians as a whole do not apologize enough, asking Toews to apologize for his role as a cabinet minister for locking down Alberta during the pandemic. She received a massive round of applause for this answer; by far the biggest pop of the evening. When Toews gave a watery answer in response, he was outright booed. One attendee furiously accused him of jailing pastors. Polling of party members has shown that she’s far and away ahead in first too.
Danielle Smith has made the centrepiece of her campaign the Alberta Sovereignty Act. When Rob Anderson announced he was chairing her campaign, Rob Anderson said she supports the Free Alberta Strategy as a whole. Whether this endorsement of the Free Alberta Strategy includes an endorsement of the initiative’s last-ditch proposal to break Alberta off from Canada, is unknown, but Rob Anderson’s participation in the Smith campaign may serve as an indication where she stands on that front. Additionally, Todd Loewen, who is very unlikely to become the leader of the UCP, also supports the Alberta Sovereignty Act, and the rest of the candidates are sympathetic to at least parts of the Free Alberta Strategy, like the creation of an Albertan Police Force or an Alberta Pension Plan while questioning the Alberta Sovereignty Act’s legality.
On paper, Danielle Smith’s path to victory as UCP leader should be perilous. Given her blindsiding opportunism in 2014, are UCP members really so shortsighted as to have forgotten what she did? She’s also peddled nonsense on a variety of health topics, like E. coli-infected meat, hydroxychloroquine, and cancer. Of course, one could argue that all PR is good PR, and while those comments have caused outrage, they’ve also kept her prominent in Albertan and Canadian headlines. Since she’s charismatic and her main two competitors, former Wildrose leader Brian Jean and establishment golden boy Travis Toews are running anemic campaigns, she’s well positioned for the leadership vote on October 6th.
I do not intend to engage in fearmongering. If Travis Toews’ broad (but declining) support from the UCP caucus translates into a leadership victory, he’ll likely head a boring, wonkish government similar to Kenney. The odds of the Alberta Sovereignty Act being upheld, if it even were to pass through the legislature, is currently small given that key members of the UCP’s caucus, including Jason Kenney, believe that its passage would be disastrous. If the Sovereignty Act is unlikely to pass the legislature, let alone make it through the courts, then the odds of Alberta separating are even smaller. If Danielle Smith becomes premier of Alberta, who’s to say she’ll win in an election against the NDP? The province already voted against her once, in 2012! If she introduces the Alberta Sovereignty Act and it ends up fracturing the UCP caucus, that alone could spell doom for the party, let alone her pandering to far-right lunatics may make her unelectable to moderate Albertans. And because of the concern of needing to win a general election, who’s to say Danielle Smith won’t cynically pivot and forget all about the Alberta Sovereignty Act?
Still, the liberal arrogance of believing the unlikely to be impossible is the exact attitude that won Trump the white house, that caused Brexit to happen, and so on. Do remember that much of the GOP establishment ferociously opposed Donald Trump until he won in the election. Now, his toughest critics then, like Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham grovel to him. It has to be possible that if Danielle Smith wins, the members of the UCP caucus will similarly pivot and attempt to pass the Alberta Sovereignty Act. Even ignoring how asinine the notions of the Free Alberta Strategy are, imagine the effect on Albertan business if it were to pass. There would be historic capital flight from the province if the government intended to ignore the rule of law itself. And when the Alberta Sovereignty Act would be struck down by the courts for being blatantly unconstitutional, per Barry Cooper’s own admission, perhaps then his ilk will then openly pivot to their position of “reluctant” separatism.
If the political discourse in Alberta does genuinely shift to a point where separation from Canada becomes a viable political option, the gravity of how calamitous that would be would likely sink in and make such a vote unlikely to pass. However, some opinion polls on independence have shown support for separation to be around 40%. There is a not-insignificant constituency for this rhetoric, and Canadian federalists, patriots, nationalists, whoever, ought to take the discussion of separation seriously. Even more so, the Alberta Sovereignty Act is a blatant attack on the rule of law and is thus a far more immediate threat than independence.