The Murex is back! If the four month absence is any indication, expect a lower output of work here compared to the previous year for an indefinite amount of time, though I will try to get my long(er)-form work on here when permissible. Thanks for your patience! - L.M.J.
There are few political phenomenons in the Western world more bizarre than Donald Trump. Every time I remember that he was elected president, I can’t help but laugh; the guy from The Apprentice, a brat who grew up in the nursery of luxury who’s become the working class’s champion, and whose appearance, speech patterns, mannerisms, are just… strange. Donald Trump is the personification of every negative stereotype about America taken to their logical conclusions, so him being elected to lead the world’s sole superpower remains nothing short of surreal.
The surrealism isn’t over yet, however. Trump is the first major candidate for president for his third electoral cycle in a row. Considering that as a candidate for president in 2015 and 2016, as president from 2017 to 2021, and once again as an official candidate for president this year – he’s still held rallies since losing the White House despite only officially announcing that he is running in November – he’s basically been electioneering for the better part of a decade. However, unlike the 2020 primaries, Trump will likely face a legitimate challenge in the form of Ron DeSantis. As there are few greater Canadian pastimes than discussing American politics, let’s examine the arguments for Ron DeSantis’ odds against Trump, and vice versa.
FOR DESANTIS:
DeSantis wins, bigly: Unlike in the eyes of Republicans critical of Trump, DeSantis has a proven winning record. He’s won every election he’s contested, whether it’s been running in Republican primaries, for Congress, or for governor of Florida. The latter races, of course, are the most significant; despite polling and predictions pointing to Democratic candidate Andrew Gillum winning the governorship of Florida in 2018, amid a very strong electoral environment for Democrats, DeSantis squeaked through. Now, in 2022, when Republicans were disappointed with their performance in most swing states, DeSantis and the state of Florida was one big, ruby consolation prize. Whereas DeSantis defeated Gillum in 2018 by just over 30,000 votes, or a margin of 0.4%, he cruised this time around against Charlie Crist, winning with over 1.5 million votes, or a margin of over 19%. In this victory, DeSantis carried the counties of Miami-Dade and Pinellas (Tampa) at a time when urban and suburban areas are becoming increasingly liberal, largely because he won support of Hispanics. How much of DeSantis’ win this most recent cycle is attributable to his strength rather than, say, the incompetence of Florida’s Democratic Party in failing to get their vote out, all while Florida becomes more Republican as a whole, is debatable. But what is the main reason that DeSantis won so overwhelmingly is irrelevant so long as Republicans believe he is just that much of an electoral juggernaut. Regardless as to why he won by the margins he did, he won in a landslide in what has traditionally been one of the most competitive states of the last few decades despite Republican underperformance in most swing states, all while breaking through with Hispanics. Whereas Trump lost in 2020, presided over losing midterms in 2018, and lost the popular vote in 2016, DeSantis seems to do nothing but win, win, win.
Blood in the water: The brand is in crisis. Or so it seems. As aforementioned, Trump has been effectively perpetually campaigning since 2015. By 2024, he will have been campaigning for nine years. While he hasn’t had any major public health issues, he’ll turn 77 later this year. For someone that age, no matter how strong their constitution is, campaigning for that long at the intensity he has been campaigning extracts a toll. Frankly, he sounded tired in his speech in November where he officially launched his 2024 campaign, and while he’s been fairly inconspicuous lately (aside from launching a new line of NFTs) the “magic” which he had in the 2016 and even in 2020 just isn’t what it used to be. But even if Trump still has the inexplicable “it” which can make electoral campaigns successful, something which I’m skeptical he still has, he’s less accessible to the American public than he was before. How often in 2016 and in 2020 would big news stations air his rallies on television without any commentary? How much free press did he gain purely because the news networks wanted clicks and views? Finally, after years and a multitude of damage to American democracy later, the media appears to have learned that perpetual outrage wasn’t going to kill Trump. Rather, a lack of oxygen will. They simply aren’t covering him like they did before. Furthermore, now that Trump is contractually committed to TruthSocial rather than other social media, his reach has been cut down significantly. Trump’s frequent usage of Twitter gave him a presence which he just doesn’t have right now. Of course, he’s been unbanned and could come back, thus making this point moot, but so long as he remains off Twitter, he simply will not occupy the same place within the (inter)national conscience that he had previously.
The big money: As aforementioned, many Republicans, including those at a high level, are openly blaming Trump for their weaker-than-expected performance in the midterm elections. Regardless of the merits of them blaming Trump – I tend to think that the problems that caused the GOP to do (relatively) poorly in the midterms go beyond Trump – this is the line that many have gone with. This narrative, while not a consensus within the party, is certainly the most aggressive pushback Trump has gotten from within the Republican Party since he was rebuked by many after the Access Hollywood tapes were leaked. If these statements of urging the party to move on result in substantial opposition to Trump within the primaries and actual coalescing of support for DeSantis, that may help bring Trump down. This means that these statements have to translate in key party politicians and officials actively opposing Trump, and perhaps more importantly, that Republican megadonors go against Trump. Already, Charles Koch – it’s now a singular Koch rather than the ominous Koch brothers – is reportedly inclined to oppose Trump in the primaries, and Elon Musk has also signalled that he would support a DeSantis candidacy. If the whole of the pro-Republican billionaire class opposes Trump, and likely backs DeSantis in the process, that could help dislodge Trump.
FOR TRUMP:
The big money?: The last argument in favour of DeSantis; that major Republican politicians and money may oppose Trump and thus back DeSantis, was put in last place because it is the most marginal argument for DeSantis. This is because the words of Trump-skeptics have to result in action and money in order to defeat Trump. Right now, aspiring Republican candidates and their prospective supporters are privately hoping that Trump ends up being legally barred from running for president again. That way, they can run for president without running against Trump and even campaign on just how pro-Trump each candidate is. They’d compete on the basis of promising to either pardon Trump, or change the law, or upend the judicial system, etc. all to help Trump. However, they cannot bank on Trump being barred from running, let alone indicted. To paraphrase what McKay Coppins said, if Republicans don’t want Trump as their nominee, then they have to make a real and concerted effort to push him out. Otherwise, they’re simply wishcasting their concerns about Trump (that his brand is damaged/toxic, etc.) without actually doing anything to make Trump’s weakness a reality. Donors may be more willing to publicly and substantially support DeSantis or other Trump opponents than many politicians, as politicians will fear that even if they make that concerted effort to depose Trump, they will still come up short and thus face his far-reaching vengeance. If they do not let go of their apprehension of openly opposing Trump, they will struggle to ever be rid of him.
Cult ‘o’ personality: The foremost lesson of getting stuff done in mass politics, in its electoral forms and otherwise, is that you do not need all the people to win; you just need enough. If this concerted effort by the Republican political and financial establishment to beat Trump occurs in earnest, they will still need to convince the hearts and minds of a wide swathe of Republican voters. Disillusioned as the establishment may privately be with Trump, he still remains the focal point of a cult of personality among millions. The people who made terrible Facebook memes of Jesus hugging Trump will not readily abandon their political loyalties because they have made Trump their identity. If a flat 40% of Republican primary voters have this semi-religious attachment to Trump, then it wouldn’t take that many middling Republicans who could support Trump or DeSantis committing to Trump to guarantee Trump the nomination. Certainly, a not insignificant number of Republican voters would vote for DeSantis in a primary, but so long as Trump can retain enough voters, particularly in the right states at the right times in the primary schedule, he should be able to overcome whatever challenges he faces, even if hundreds of millions are spent on advertising critical of him.
DeSantis sucks: Ron DeSantis is not good. This isn’t a partisan statement, repugnant as his homophobic and transphobic moral panics are, but rather a statement about his profile as an electoral politician. He’s devoid of substance, and is not charming enough to pretend that he does anyway. DeSantis is not even the best at his cynical style of politics, where he will simply try to Own the Libs his way to the presidency. By contrast, unless Trump is more diminished than it seems, Trump is still better at this kind of politics, and through sheer force of personality, Trump will likely emasculate DeSantis at the debates, ala Ted Cruz or Jeb Bush. Time will tell of course, but I have extreme difficulty seeing anything but DeSantis wilting under pressure when Trump starts brutalizing him.
Putting the “Party” in Republican Party: DeSantis is currently the apparent opposition to Trump, but who’s to say he’ll be the only other candidate? Already, Nikki Haley is poised to announce her candidacy later this month, and John Bolton has indicated he too will run. Mike Pompeo seems poised to run for president as well, Mike Pence certainly wants to be president, and it doesn’t take much to imagine that Asa Hutchinson, Glenn Youngkin, Larry Hogan, Liz Cheney, Greg Abbott, and Ted Cruz, among others, could make bids of their own. Barring a large reversal, I don’t think any of these candidates are viable – is John Bolton seriously deluded enough to think that he could actually win in today’s Republican Party? – but if the field is crowded enough, they could syphon off the votes that DeSantis would need to beat Trump.
We’re still many months away from the first primaries and caucuses, and much can change. Indeed, Ron DeSantis’ candidacy as of right now is just a presumption; he certainly acts like someone who wants to be president, and the massive amount of glowing attention he receives from conservative media is certainly encouraging him to run, but it’s not impossible that he sits this cycle out. In fact, he might be smart to do so; let Trump run and hopefully flounder, then run in 2028 as the far-right’s messiah. If Trump electorally self-immolates again, all while DeSantis expands upon his already deeply conservative track record as Florida Governor, he would be able to position himself as conservatism’s saviour, who tramples over the left electorally and politically like a juggernaut. Of course, vanity is hard to overcome, and despite the effective storytelling he’d be able to pull off if he doesn’t run this cycle, odds are he runs regardless. And if he does run, well, let’s say the primary will be intense regardless of outcome.